Benjamin Mogil, an analyst with Thomas Weisel Partners, recently recounted his $375 million Shrek Forever After domestic projection replacing it with one for $315 million. The projection change caused a 6% decrease in DreamWorks Animation’s shares, which closed at $34.13 yesterday afternoon.
Mogil cited preliminary surveys for the change in projection, estimating an opening weekend of $75 to $90 million in ticket sales, rather than the $110 million previously estimated by most analysts, causing investor skepticism. Similar investor reactions were seen earlier this year when How to Train Your Dragon suffered its first week at the box office, only to begin picking up sales as the movie turned into one of the studio’s biggest successes.
Shrek Forever After is the final chapter in the Shrek series, although a spin off Puss and Boots centered film is set to be released next year. The franchise’s greatest success came from Shrek 2 which brought in just over $441 million in the U.S. and Canada.
Will nostalgia, a heavy marketing campaign, and higher prices of 3D and IMAX screenings push Shrek Forever After into box office success or will the last chapter prove to also be the worst?
